Evaluation and Comparison of Latent Health Risk Prediction Models for Clinical Triage: Protocol for a Mixed Methods...

Clinical triage requires integrating multiple information sources to identify patients at risk of deterioration. Tools capturing global health assessments beyond disease-specific scores are being developed using either bottom-up aggregation of simple indicators or top-down machine learning from large datasets. Their alignment with expert clinical judgment remains poorly characterized.

This study evaluates 2 latent health measurement approaches: Frailty Index-laboratory, a transparent bottom-up tool aggregating laboratory abnormalities via deficit accumulation theory, and ETHOS-ARES (Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation-Adaptive Risk Estimation System), a transformer-based foundation model generating multidimensional patient representations from electronic health records. We assess whether each tool's severity rankings align with clinical consensus and whether they offer utility in triage decisions.

In this 3-phase mixed methods study, at least 30 clinicians across hospital specialties reviewed 20 emergency department presentations derived from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV-Emergency Department. Phase 1 compared unaided clinician severity and urgency judgments against model outputs using Spearman rank correlation, with a Turing-inspired indistinguishability test assessing whether model rankings fell within the distribution of clinician assessments. Phase 2 allocated clinicians to receive Frailty Index-laboratory or ETHOS-ARES outputs, measuring anchoring effects via within-person pre-post comparisons and exploring clinical utility through semistructured interviews analyzed using the Framework Method.

Ethics approval was granted in June 2025 (KCL Research Ethics Office; MRSP-24/25-48707). Recruitment began in October 2025 (32 clinicians recruited as of manuscript submission), with data collection expected to be completed in January 2026 and analysis planned for March or April 2026.

This study will quantify model-clinician agreement, measure anchoring effects, and generate qualitative insights on utility, trust, and adoption. The findings will inform the implementation of latent health measurement tools in clinical practice and provide a framework for the early-stage evaluation of artificial intelligence-based clinical decision support systems.