Mathematical Modeling Shows that Overall Infection Burden is Reduced More by Vaccines that Decrease Spread or
Indunil M Hewage1, Sameera Hewage2, Elissa J Schwartz3
1Department of Mathematics, West Virginia University Institute of Technology, Beckley, WV, 25801, USA. indunil.hewage@mail.wvu.edu.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|July 4, 2026
Summary
Vaccines significantly reduce COVID-19 deaths. This study shows vaccines that block infections, decrease transmission, and speed recovery offer the greatest population-level benefits for controlling the pandemic.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Vaccination programs have substantially decreased COVID-19 cases and mortality.
- Previous studies primarily used compartmental models to analyze COVID-19 spread and control.
- Research on vaccine benefits beyond infection prevention is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an ODE-based compartmental model differentiating vaccinated individuals.
- To quantify the impact of various vaccine effectiveness facets on disease control.
- To analyze the population-level effects of different vaccine benefits.
Main Methods:
- Developed an ODE-based compartmental model incorporating a distinct disease progression for vaccinated individuals.
- Defined key parameters for vaccine effectiveness: infection blocking, transmission reduction, recovery acceleration, morbidity reduction, and mortality prevention.
- Conducted sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations to assess impacts on reproduction number, infections, peak infections, and deaths.
Main Results:
- Vaccine benefits reducing disease spread (blocking infections, decreasing transmission) and expediting recovery significantly impact the entire population.
- Benefits reducing severe morbidity and preventing mortality primarily benefit vaccinated individuals, with less impact on overall epidemic dynamics.
- Vaccine effectiveness in blocking infections, reducing infectivity, and accelerating recovery drastically reduces the overall infection burden.
Conclusions:
- Vaccines offering high efficacy in blocking infections, reducing transmission, and speeding recovery are crucial for substantial population-level pandemic control.
- The specific benefits of vaccines (e.g., reducing severe disease vs. blocking transmission) have differential impacts on the vaccinated versus the general population.
- Mathematical modeling provides critical insights into optimizing vaccine strategies for maximum public health impact.
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