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Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Pediatric Death in the United States: 2016-2025

Jerome S Leonard1,2, Katie Reinhart1, Peng-Jun Lu3

  • 1Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.

Pediatrics
|July 5, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Seasonal influenza vaccination significantly reduces the risk of fatal influenza in children. This study found an 80% vaccine effectiveness (VE) against pediatric deaths, highlighting the importance of flu shots for children.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Infectious Diseases
  • Vaccinology
  • Public Health Surveillance

Background:

  • Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended for children aged 6 months and older to prevent influenza and its severe complications.
  • Influenza-associated pediatric deaths have varied annually since 2010, with reported deaths ranging from 37 to 289 per season.
  • Estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against pediatric mortality is crucial for public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza-associated pediatric deaths.
  • To analyze VE in children with and without underlying medical conditions.
  • To provide data supporting childhood influenza vaccination programs.

Main Methods:

  • A case-cohort analysis was performed using reported influenza-associated pediatric deaths.
  • Vaccination status was compared between deceased children and general pediatric population coverage estimates.
  • Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and vaccine effectiveness (VE = (1-OR) x 100).

Main Results:

  • From 2016-2025, 1234 influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported in children aged 6 months to 17 years.
  • Overall VE was 80% (95% CI 75-84), with 77% (95% CI 71-82) in children with underlying conditions and 87% (95% CI 84-89) in those without.
  • Vaccination coverage in the study cohorts was 49% on average.

Conclusions:

  • Influenza vaccination demonstrated significant effectiveness in reducing fatal influenza outcomes among children.
  • The findings support the recommendation of seasonal influenza vaccination for all children, irrespective of underlying health conditions.
  • Vaccination remains a critical tool in preventing pediatric influenza mortality.
Abstract

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