EUPopLink Country report - Iceland

This paper explores the unique nature and evolution of Euroscepticism in Iceland, which originates not from contemporary identity politics but from a deeply embedded national ideology prioritising sovereignty and democratic control over natural resources. Historically, Iceland's relationship with Europe has been defined by a dual imperative: seeking economic prosperity through integration mechanisms like the European Economic Area, while fiercely protecting its hard-won political autonomy by resisting full European Union membership. The study examines the multiparty political landscape, demonstrating how mainstream factions have traditionally navigated this ambivalence. Special emphasis is placed on the rise of populist and quasi-populist actors, notably the Centre Party and the People's Party. The Centre Party deploys a hard, historically grounded Euroscepticism framing the EU as a threat to Icelandic self-determination, whereas the People's Party utilizes a more reactive, welfare-centric critique. However, the trajectory of Icelandic Euroscepticism is not static. The paper argues that recent geopolitical shocks - including the complexities of Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and shifts in U.S. foreign policy - have tempered nationalist resistance, prompting a pragmatic re-evaluation of external alignments. Consequently, a 2024 coalition government has committed to holding a referendum on resuming the EU accession process, signalling a potential paradigm shift in Iceland's European orientation. Ultimately, this case study illuminates the complex interplay between nationalism, populism, and strategic pragmatism within a small-state setting.