Childhood sepsis burden: pathogens/antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, 1990-2021 and 2050 forecasts

Area of Science:

• Global Health
• Pediatric Infectious Diseases
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Childhood sepsis represents a significant global health challenge.
• Understanding its burden and trends is crucial for effective prevention and treatment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the global burden and trends of childhood sepsis (ages 0-14).
• To inform targeted prevention and treatment strategies by clarifying sepsis epidemiology.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database for analysis.
• Included 62 pathogens, 21 drug-resistant, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 12 infection syndromes.
• Analyzed deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates; forecasted antimicrobial resistance (AMR) impact using ARIMA models.

Main Results:

• Global child sepsis deaths declined from 6.43 million (1990) to 2.24 million (2021); DALYs dropped from 578 million to 203 million.
• Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates showed an annual decrease of approximately 3.35% and 3.33%, respectively.
• Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia remain high-burden regions; Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Escherichia coli were leading pathogens.

Conclusions:

• A significant reduction in global childhood sepsis burden was observed between 1990 and 2021.
• Continued focus on high-burden regions, healthcare optimization, AMR control, vaccination, and sanitation is essential.
• Further efforts are needed to address the persistent global burden of childhood sepsis.