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Progression-Free Survival Effect Sizes in Randomized Controlled Trials of Targeted Cancer Therapies with Positive
Wei Zhang1,2, Wen Yan1,2, Mengyun Chen1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Experimental Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Blood Diseases, Haihe Laboratory of Cell Ecosystem, Institute of Hematology and Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, China.
Progression-free survival (PFS) improvements in targeted cancer therapies show decreasing effect sizes, potentially indicating a bias in drug approvals. Analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reveals concerning trends in oncology research.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Clinical Trials
- Drug Development
Background:
- Progression-free survival (PFS) is a key endpoint for regulatory approval of cancer therapies.
- The interpretation of PFS benefits in clinical trials requires careful evaluation of effect sizes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze trends in PFS effect sizes for targeted versus conventional cancer therapies in recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs).
- To investigate potential biases in the acceptance of cancer drug approvals based on PFS outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Systematic analysis of 106 RCTs with positive PFS outcomes published between 2020-2023 in leading oncology journals.
- Categorization of RCTs into 'targeted' (n=83) and 'conventional' (n=23) therapies.
- Evaluation of PFS effect sizes using hazard ratio (HR) and PFS increment, analyzing trends over time.
Main Results:
- Among targeted therapies, the 25th-percentile hazard ratio (HR) significantly increased (slope=0.05/year, P=.02).
- The 25th-percentile PFS increment significantly decreased for targeted therapies (slope=-9.1 percentage points/year, P=.03).
- Similar trends were not observed in conventional therapy trials.
Conclusions:
- The study suggests a potential bias towards accepting targeted therapies despite diminishing PFS effect sizes.
- These findings highlight the need for critical assessment of PFS endpoints in cancer drug approvals.
- Further research is warranted to understand the implications for clinical practice and patient outcomes.
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