Quantitative Cerebrovascular Analysis for Improved Prediction of Post-Stroke Complications

Endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) has transformed the treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). However, a substantial proportion of AIS patients experience poor outcomes despite successful recanalization, often due to severe neurological deterioration or life-threatening complications. Early identification of these high-risk patients remains a major unmet need. In this study, we developed and validated machine-learning (ML) models that integrate automated quantitative brain arterial morphology and collateral grading with demographic, clinical, laboratory, and imaging variables to predict major post-EVT complications and early neurological outcomes. Using a prospectively collected database of 727 AIS patients that underwent EVT, we developed ML models to incorporate patient-specific vascular morphometry with conventional clinical, laboratory, and imaging data to predict emergence of early neurological deterioration (END), symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), malignant brain edema (MBE) requiring surgical decompression, and neurogenic respiratory failure and dysphagia requiring tracheostomy/gastrostomy (TC/PEG). Our analysis of morphological features, including increased tortuosity and reduced vessel diameter, showed strong associations with complications. Morphology-informed (MI) models consistently outperformed baseline-clinical (BC) models for patients with END (AUROC 0.81 for MI model vs. 0.73 for BC), sICH (AUROC 0.68 MI vs. 0.56 BC model), MBE (AUROC 0.67 MI model vs. 0.56 BC), or patients who underwent TC/PEG (AUROC 0.66MI vs. 0.58 BC model). Statistical testing confirmed significant AUROC improvements for END, sICH and mRS (p < 0.05), Finally, patient-specific calibrated probability profiles enabled individualized, multidimensional risk stratification, revealing distinct complication-specific risk patterns across patients. These findings demonstrate that cerebrovascular structure-an often overlooked yet physiologically fundamental determinant of ischemic injury and reperfusion dynamics-provides significant predictive information that is not captured by standard clinical or visual imaging assessments. Automated vascular segmentation and collateral grading techniques enable rapid and objective integration of cerebrovascular metrics into prognostic models, offering a scalable tool for precision risk stratification, supporting earlier intervention, targeted monitoring, and improved post-EVT management.