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Workforce Projections For Physicians, Nurse Practitioners, And Physician Associates
Monica O'Reilly-Jacob1, Lusine Poghosyan2, Susan Kelly-Weeder3
1Monica O'Reilly-Jacob (mo2986@cumc.columbia.edu), Columbia University, New York, New York.
Health Affairs (Project Hope)
|July 7, 2026
Summary
Physician supply will grow 1% annually, while nurse practitioners and physician associates will increase by 11% and 5.6% respectively by 2030. This clinician supply surge impacts healthcare team dynamics and policy.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare workforce analysis
- Health policy research
- Clinical workforce planning
Background:
- Adequate clinician supply is crucial for healthcare policy.
- Previous forecasts projected steady physician supply growth.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast the supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician associates through 2030.
- To analyze the implications of projected workforce changes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized forecasting models to project clinician supply.
- Analyzed trends in nurse practitioner and physician associate graduates.
Main Results:
- Physician supply projected to grow 1% annually.
- Nurse practitioner supply projected to increase 11% annually.
- Physician associate supply projected to increase 5.6% annually through 2030.
Conclusions:
- Significant growth in advanced practice providers (nurse practitioners and physician associates) is expected.
- The surge in nurse practitioners has key implications for healthcare onboarding, team-based care models, and policy development.
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