Contrasting Warming Responses of Crops Harvested for Aboveground and Belowground Organs: A Global-Meta Analysis

Global warming intensifies heat stress and threatens global food production, but the extent of yield loss varies with crop type and harvested organ. To disentangle these patterns, we conducted a meta-analysis of 96 studies comparing warming responses in crops harvested for aboveground organs (CA) versus belowground organs (CB). Warming resulted in larger yield reductions in CA than in CB crops, with end-product number being more sensitive to warming stress than end-product mass in both crop types. Among crop groups, short-day CA crops experienced the greatest warming-induced yield loss, followed by stem tuber CB crops, whereas root tuber CB crops were least affected. Latitudinal gradients further modulated responses: warming at higher latitudes exacerbated losses in long-day CA crops but alleviated or reversed impacts in short-day CA and root tuber CB crops. These findings demonstrate that warming effects are organ-, crop type-, and latitude-dependent, rather than uniform across agricultural systems. By synthesizing diverse experimental evidence, this study provides a quantitative framework for understanding crop-specific vulnerabilities to heat stress, offering new insights for breeding heat-tolerant varieties and guiding adaptive management under climate change.