Multi-Scale Habitat Suitability and Spatial Distribution of the European Green Toad

Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates globally, primarily because of habitat loss, pollution, climate change, and landscape fragmentation. This study aimed to model and map the potential spatial distribution and ecological suitability of the European green toad (Bufotes viridis sensu lato) across the Mediterranean Basin of Türkiye to inform conservation and habitat management strategies. A multi-criteria decision-making approach integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was applied. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign weights to nine environmental variables: slope, aspect, altitude, canopy cover, temperature, land cover, and distances to roads, urban centers, and freshwater. The weighted layers were combined to produce a composite habitat suitability map. The model accuracy was validated using 33 georeferenced field sampling points from Adana Province. Model outputs indicated that approximately 67% of the study area was classified as high or very high suitability for B. viridis, while 95.36% of the study area fell within the moderate, high, or very high suitability classes. Proximity to freshwater (weight = 0.352) and temperature (weight = 0.186) were identified as the most influential predictors. Spatial analysis revealed that suitable habitats are primarily concentrated near freshwater systems and low-elevation zones, highlighting the importance of riparian and agricultural landscapes as key breeding and dispersal areas. The integrative AHP-GIS framework successfully identified critical breeding habitats, ecological corridors, and priority conservation zones for B. viridis. Our findings provide a spatially explicit framework that supports biodiversity conservation and sustainable landscape management in Mediterranean ecosystems, offering a replicable model for amphibian species in other biodiversity-rich but data-deficient regions.