Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and subsequent renal function decline in older adults with type 2 diabetes

Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability may capture glycemic instability beyond mean HbA1c. We assessed its association with subsequent renal function decline in older Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes.

In a single-center prospective landmark cohort, we enrolled adults with type 2 diabetes who were aged ≥65 years. Index diabetes-care encounters were prospectively identified in 2015-2019. HbA1c variability was calculated from at least three HbA1c measurements collected during a fixed 24-month exposure window, and participants were followed from the 24-month landmark. The primary exposure was the HbA1c coefficient of variation (HbA1c-CV). The primary outcome was sustained renal function decline after a landmark, defined as confirmed ≥20% eGFR decline, eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m², or kidney replacement therapy. Multivariable Cox models adjusted for mean HbA1c and baseline covariates.

The cohort included 630 participants (mean age 72.9 years; 52.7% men). During a median of 4.6 years of follow-up, 247 primary renal events occurred. Each 5% absolute increase in HbA1c-CV was associated with higher renal decline risk (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.31; p < 0.001). Compared with the lowest tertile, the highest tertile had a higher risk (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.18-2.11; p = 0.002). Results were directionally consistent in competing-risk and lagged analyses.

Greater visit-to-visit HbA1c variability was independently associated with subsequent renal function decline. HbA1c variability may represent a pragmatic prognostic signal; however, incremental predictive value beyond established kidney markers was not tested in this study.