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Buckled-track derailments: Long-term trends and implications for rail neutral temperature management
Kamyar Kosarneshan1, Marcus Dersch1, J Riley Edwards1
1Rail Transportation and Engineering Center - RailTEC, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Grainger College of Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, 205 N Mathews Ave, Urbana, IL 61801,.
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|July 8, 2026
Summary
Buckled track derailments, often caused by extreme heat, are increasing relative to other track issues. Proper rail neutral temperature (RNT) management is crucial for preventing these high-risk train accidents.
Area of Science:
- Railroad engineering
- Transportation safety
- Materials science
Background:
- Train derailments are common US railroad accidents, with buckled track and broken rails posing the highest risks.
- Buckled-track derailments stem from compressive thermal stresses and are difficult to detect as they don't typically disrupt signals.
Purpose of the Study:
- Analyze buckled-track derailment risk across Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Track Classes from 2000-2024.
- Investigate the relationship between ambient/rail temperatures and buckled-track derailments.
- Evaluate the effectiveness of current rail neutral temperature (RNT) management.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the FRA accident database and track classification system.
- Analyzed historical derailment data (2000-2024) correlated with temperature records.
- Compared derailment rail temperatures with established RNT values.
Main Results:
- Buckled-track derailment risk has declined overall but increased proportionally among track-caused derailments.
- 62% of Class I mainline/siding buckled-track derailments (2011-2024) occurred during extreme heat (above 90% of annual high temperatures).
- Derailments often happened at rail temperatures deviating from the intended RNT.
Conclusions:
- Extreme heat significantly correlates with buckled-track derailments.
- Current RNT may not be maintained effectively, suggesting potential degradation or improper initial setting.
- Improved continuous welded rail (CWR) stress management and monitoring are necessary to mitigate buckled-track derailment risks.
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