Analysis of multi-factor coupling mechanisms of truck drivers' aberrant driving behaviors

Aberrant driving behaviors (ADBs) are the leading cause of truck-involved fatalities, typically resulting from the interactions of multiple concurrent factors. This study aims to understand the interaction mechanisms of these factors and quantify their coupling effects on ADB risk among truck drivers. To this end, a systematic analysis was first conducted to identify and classify key factors influencing truck drivers' ADBs, which were organized into three primary domains: driver-related, occupational, and environmental factors. A Bayesian Network (BN) model was then constructed to represent the probabilistic interdependencies among 14 contributing factors and their coupling types, with parameters estimated using a cumulative risk (CR) framework and mutual information (MI) theory. The model was calibrated using survey data from 392 truck drivers and evaluated in terms of internal consistency, complemented by sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Results indicate that drivers' self-reported ADB risk tendencies exhibit synergistic rather than additive effects, with probabilities increasing substantially from the two-factor couplings (69-83 %) to the three-factor Driver-Occupation-Environment coupling (85 %). Among the two-factor interactions, the Occupation-Environment coupling is the most pronounced, suggesting that organizational pressures and external road conditions jointly amplify their impact on ADB risk. Furthermore, drivers' legal literacy, perceived behavioral control, and driving intensity emerge as the most influential and consistent contributing factors across all coupling scenarios. This study provides a theoretical perspective and an integrated analytical framework for examining multi-factor coupling mechanisms underlying truck drivers' ADB risk tendencies. The findings may help inform risk prioritization and future hypothesis development regarding safety management strategies in truck operations.