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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Global pattern of water-energy-carbon nexus and future forecast
Ying Sun1, Huijuan Dong2, Huixin Xue1
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Abstract:
Effective management of the Water-Energy-Carbon (WEC) nexus is vital for global sustainability, yet integrated long-term global forecasts remain scarce. This study couples the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EE-MRIO) model to forecast the WEC nexus across 32 global regions from 1990 to 2100. We introduce Internal (coordination) and External (decoupling) indices to assess nexus patterns under four socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios. By 2020, global water, energy, and carbon footprints reached 4165 km3, 622.64 EJ, and 33.88 Gt CO2, respectively, heavily concentrated in China and the US. Our historical analysis uncovers a striking geographic misalignment in international supply chains: virtual water predominantly transfers from West to East, whereas embodied energy and carbon flow conversely. Nationally, water-related nexuses exhibit the weakest internal coordination (averaging 0.400) compared to the energy-carbon nexus (0.507). Externally, while water footprint exhibits widespread stronger decoupling from economic growth, energy and carbon footprints remain trapped in weak decoupling, particularly within emerging developing economies such as China and India. Long-term projections show that sustainability-oriented plus strong mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6) provides the optimal pathway for global WEC nexus optimization, whereas fragmented scenarios (SSP3-7.0) trigger severe pattern reversals and resource risks. We highlight that managing global WEC nexus requires coordinated global supply chains and integrated regional policy management.
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