Physical predictors of competitive success in Hungarian junior tennis: insights from a national talent identification...

This study examined the predictive value of selected physical performance indicators in elite junior tennis players within Hungary's national development program. Forty athletes (23 boys, 17 girls), aged 11-18 years, participated in the 2024 standardized physical assessment conducted by the Hungarian Tennis Federation (HTF). Eleven motor performance tests were administered to evaluate key fitness domains, including speed, agility, coordination, explosive power, flexibility, reaction time, and core endurance. Based on preliminary correlation analyses and their theoretical relevance for tennis performance, four variables demonstrating the strongest association with ranking were selected for inclusion in the regression model: the 20-meter sprint, agility T-test, standing long jump, and plank hold. This approach allowed the construction of a parsimonious model while retaining variables widely recognized as relevant physical determinants of tennis performance. The regression model explained 49.2% of the variance in ranking outcomes (R ² = 0.492, p = 0.001). The 20-meter sprint time (β = 0.977, p < 0.001), agility T-test performance (β = -0.456, p = 0.013), and standing long jump distance (β = 0.538, p = 0.020) were significant predictors of national ranking, whereas plank hold duration did not show a statistically significant effect. These findings underscore the importance of sprint performance and lower-body explosive power in competitive success among junior tennis players. Although agility was significantly associated with ranking, its inverse direction suggests that pre-planned change-of-direction speed alone may not fully reflect the multifactorial determinants of competitive performance in youth tennis.