Optimizing postoperative prognostication in duodenal adenocarcinoma: a multicenter study with external validation

To develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for overall survival (OS) in resected duodenal adenocarcinoma (DA) using routinely available perioperative variables, thereby clarifying risk profiles and supporting clinical management.

Multicenter analysis of 2289 consecutive DA patients undergoing curative surgery (2012-2022) from China's National Cancer Center database. External validation used 335 patients from Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital (2022-2024). LASSO-Cox regression selected variables from 89 perioperative factors to construct the nomogram, with web tool implementation.

The LASSO-Cox model achieved 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.77), 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.77), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.79), outperforming traditional Cox models (P < .01). External validation yielded AUCs of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.86) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for 1- and 3-year OS, and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.89) for estimated 5-year OS. The model stratified patients into low- and high-risk groups (cutoff 0.40), with low-risk patients showing superior survival. Eight predictors were selected, including modifiable surgical factors such as transfusion and operative time.

We developed and externally validated a postoperative prognostic nomogram for DA using routinely available perioperative variables. In the present study, the model improved postoperative risk stratification and may support counseling, follow-up planning, and multidisciplinary discussion regarding adjuvant therapy; however, it should be viewed as complementary to standard staging and clinical judgment, and broader clinical implementation will require further validation.