Investigating the predictive value of defendant race and jury racial composition on decision making in a criminal...

We tested the roles of defendant race (White/Black/Indigenous) and jury racial composition (all-White/racially heterogeneous) on individual verdicts, group verdicts, and verdict change in a simulated criminal trial.

We predicted that individual verdicts might demonstrate similarity-leniency among White jurors, with a reduction for those assigned to racially heterogeneous juries. For group verdicts, we expected that all-White juries might demonstrate bias toward racialized defendants. We predicted that participants in racially heterogeneous juries would be more likely to change their verdicts postdeliberation.

A total of 526 (students: N = 493, 65.5% women, M_age = 20.2; community members: N = 33, 60.6% women, M_age = 35.55) jury-eligible participants were assigned to 70 juries. White participants (N = 352) were assigned to all-White or racially heterogeneous juries; racialized participants (N = 174) were assigned to racially heterogeneous juries. Participants watched a trial video, provided individual verdicts, and then deliberated in groups for up to 60 min before reporting a final verdict or a hung jury.

White jurors were more likely to vote guilty, B = -.72, p = .042, OR = .49, 95% CI [.24, .97], and White defendants were more likely to be convicted than either Black, B = -1.38, p = .020, OR = .25, 95% CI [.08, .81], or Indigenous, B = -0.79, p = .044, OR = .46, 95% CI [.21, .98], defendants, before deliberation. A dramatic leniency shift (5.8% of juries, compared to 26.0% of predeliberation jurors, convicting) prevented us from conducting our planned analyses on group verdict. Half of the guilty verdicts came from all-White juries evaluating a White defendant, and no all-White jury convicted a racialized defendant. Verdict change was not significantly predicted by either defendant race or jury composition.

Deliberation elicited a leniency shift irrespective of defendant race. White jurors in all-White juries may have exhibited performative allyship, given the low cost of a potential wrongful acquittal in this simulation study. Findings have implications for jury research, in that our observed effects do not comport with real-world disparities between White and racialized defendants. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).