An NSGA-III-based predict-optimize-evaluate framework for low carbon land use optimization: A case study of the...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science and Policy
• Urban and Regional Planning
• Climate Change Mitigation

Background:

• Reconciling carbon neutrality with economic development, food security, and ecological conservation presents a major land governance challenge in diverse mega-regions.
• The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), a world-class urban agglomeration, faces these competing demands, necessitating integrated land use strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply an integrated predict-optimize-evaluate framework for multi-objective land use optimization.
• To assess the carbon-economy-ecology nexus under a specific climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5) for the Yangtze River Delta.
• To provide a transferable methodological framework for carbon-neutrality-oriented land use planning in similar regions.

Main Methods:

• Development of an integrated framework predicting six key objectives: net carbon sink, economic development, food production, land use suitability, spatial compatibility, and transition probability.
• Application of a Multi-Objective Spatial Genetic Algorithm (MOSGA) coupling NSGA-III with spatial genetic operations for simultaneous optimization of land use structure and layout.
• Evaluation of the carbon-economy-ecology nexus using carbon emission intensity, land-use-induced carbon transfers, and spatial clustering analysis.

Main Results:

• Optimized land use configurations projected to reduce regional carbon emissions by 31% (to 1324.72 Mt) by 2060, with an 89% decrease in carbon emission intensity, while regional GDP increases significantly.
• Zone-differentiated optimization effectively expanded agricultural land, maintained forest coverage, and accommodated urban expansion aligned with economic roles.
• Rural residential consolidation emerged as a key strategy, releasing settlement land and creating significant carbon source-to-sink pathways, with identified priority zones for emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement.

Conclusions:

• The study demonstrates the potential for integrated land use optimization to achieve substantial carbon emission reductions and economic growth, achieving structural decoupling.
• Despite progress, a residual carbon deficit highlights the ongoing challenge of fully balancing economic development with carbon neutrality goals.
• The proposed framework offers a valuable and transferable methodology for guiding land use planning towards carbon neutrality in complex, heterogeneous mega-regions globally.