Serial effects in choice and confidence modulate each other: Evidence from 26 experiments
Michaela Bocheva1, Kai Xue2, Dobromir Rahnev2
1Department of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.
Cognition
|July 9, 2026
Summary
Serial dependence in perception and memory influences choices and confidence. This study reveals that choice and confidence serial effects are interconnected, challenging previous assumptions of independence.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Neuroscience
- Decision Science
Background:
- Serial dependence describes how past decisions bias current perception and memory.
- Confidence leak refers to a similar serial effect observed in confidence ratings.
- These effects were previously thought to be independent and driven by separate mechanisms.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between choice serial effects and confidence leak.
- To determine if these serial effects interact and modulate each other.
- To explore potential common mechanisms underlying both phenomena.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from 26 diverse experiments (N=1876) encompassing perception and memory tasks.
- Systematic examination of choice serial effects and confidence leak across experimental conditions.
- Trial-by-trial manipulation of stimulus categories to assess modulation of confidence leak.
Main Results:
- Choice and confidence serial effects were robustly present in both perception and memory tasks.
- A significant interaction was found between choice serial effects and confidence leak across all experiments.
- Switching choices weakened confidence leak, while switching confidence reversed choice serial effects.
Conclusions:
- Choice and confidence serial effects are strongly associated and mutually modulate each other.
- The findings suggest that distinct serial effects may arise from common underlying neural or cognitive mechanisms.
- This challenges the traditional view of independent processes driving serial dependence in choice and confidence.
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