Risk and vulnerability assessment of coastal social-ecological systems in Bangladesh with strategic pathways for...

Bangladesh's coastal socio-ecological systems are increasingly threatened by climate hazards and human pressures, yet system-specific risk assessments remain limited. This study applies an adapted Global Delta Risk Index to evaluate risks across five systems, including irrigated agriculture, rain-fed agriculture, freshwater prawn farming, saltwater shrimp farming, and mangrove-dependent livelihoods. Using 48 quantitative and qualitative indicators, we employ a mixed-methods approach combining spatial datasets, socioeconomic statistics, interviews, and focus group discussions to construct composite indices of exposure, susceptibility, adaptive capacity, and ecosystem condition. Results show that mangrove-dependent systems exhibit the highest risk due to extreme hazard exposure, weak adaptive capacity, and ecosystem degradation, while shrimp-based systems show comparatively lower risk. All systems are affected by freshwater scarcity, salinity, and pollution. Findings highlight cross-system trade-offs and governance challenges. Co-developed stewardship strategies with stakeholders emphasize community empowerment, institutional strengthening, resilient agroecosystems, hybrid infrastructure, and integrated resource management.