Integrating Ecological Modelling and Local Knowledge to Understand Elephant Occurrence and Human-Elephant...

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Human-Wildlife Interactions

Background:

• Human-elephant conflict (HEC) results in significant global damages, including crop loss and fatalities.
• Increasing human-elephant interactions necessitate identifying environmental factors driving elephant presence for effective mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the environmental drivers of reported elephant occurrence in the Western Ghats, India.
• To predict future elephant occurrence patterns using environmental variables and community-reported data.

Main Methods:

• Surveyed 420 community members in Kerala and Karnataka using opportunistic and snowball sampling.
• Employed generalized additive models to analyze elephant occurrence probability.
• Utilized a Markov Chain model to project future elephant occurrence by 2030.

Main Results:

• Reported elephant occurrence positively correlated with increased rainfall and proximity to protected areas and water bodies.
• Human population density and years of residence exhibited complex, non-linear effects on elephant occurrence.
• Projected shifts from linear to non-linear patterns in environmental variable influence by 2030 indicate increasing unpredictability.

Conclusions:

• Findings underscore the importance of habitat restoration and maintaining ecological corridors for mitigating HEC.
• Integrating local community knowledge with environmental modeling is crucial for understanding conflict dynamics and promoting coexistence.