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Periodic shifts in viral load increase risk of Hendra virus spillover from Pteropus bats

Tamika J Lunn1,2, Benny Borremans3,4, Devin N Jones-Slobodian5

  • 1Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.

Science Advances
|July 10, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Understanding Hendra virus infection dynamics in bats is key to preventing zoonotic spillover. High viral loads during peak prevalence periods, not just detection, are crucial for predicting spillover risk.

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Virology
  • Ecology and Evolution
  • Disease Ecology

Background:

  • Zoonotic spillover risk prediction relies on understanding host infection dynamics.
  • Viral genomic material detection alone doesn't confirm infectiousness or transmission dose.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate Hendra virus shedding in *Pteropus* bats.
  • Assess the relationship between viral load, prevalence, and equine spillover events.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 6151 pooled urine samples from *Pteropus* bats over 3 years.
  • Quantitative PCR with reverse transcription (RT-qPCR) for viral detection and load estimation.
  • Generalized additive models and permutation analysis for longitudinal associations.

Main Results:

  • Peak Hendra virus prevalence periods linked to spillover had a higher proportion of high viral loads.
  • Prolonged periods of low prevalence and viral load suggest non-infectious RNA or insufficient transmission doses.
  • Five equine spillover events were analyzed in relation to bat viral shedding.

Conclusions:

  • Viral load metrics, in addition to prevalence, enhance the prediction of zoonotic spillover risk.
  • Distinguishing between infectious virus and mere genomic material is critical for accurate risk assessment.
  • This study provides insights into Hendra virus transmission dynamics in its natural reservoir.

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