Sustainable transition planning for coal resource-based cities through an integrated land-ecology-development...

Resource-based cities stand at the frontline of the global sustainability challenge. Decades of coal-driven expansion have produced deeply entrenched land-use imbalance, ecological fragility, and development path dependence. Yet the three core dimensions of sustainable development-land-use structure, ecological resilience, and green development-are rarely examined within a unified analytical framework, despite their intrinsic coupling. Using Lvliang, a representative coal resource-based city in China, this study constructs an integrated land-use-ecological resilience-green development framework. It evaluates long-term sustainability trajectories from 2000 to 2023. Land-cover transitions are quantified through land-transfer matrices. Ecological resilience and green development are assessed using an AHP-CRITIC weighting scheme combined with VIKOR (Multi-criteria Optimization and Compromise Solution). Key drivers and constraints are identified via geographic detectors and an obstacle-degree model. Results reveal continuous expansion of construction land, substantial losses of cropland and grassland, and increasing marginalization of forests and water bodies. Grassland functions as a pivotal node mediating bidirectional transitions. Ecological resilience exhibits a pronounced "high-mountain, low-basin" pattern. It is strengthened by natural conditions and weakened by anthropogenic pressures. The pattern is shaped by nonlinear amplification, bi-factor enhancement, and independent effects, with vegetation, land use, and pollution acting as core regulatory hubs. Green development improves and then consolidates. Obstacles concentrate in the driving-force and response dimensions. Pressures re-intensify in later years. State-related barriers weaken, while influence-related constraints fluctuate. Indicator-level obstacles shift from ecological and service deficits (2000-2005), to fiscal and governance constraints (2010-2015), and ultimately to demographic and spatial pressures (2023). We propose three planning pathways: land-use optimization, zoned ecological regulation, and institutional innovation. These strategies strengthen grassland-forest-water complementarities, enhance ecological restoration in coalfield areas, and promote coordinated development of green industries and cultural tourism. The findings offer transferable insights for resource-based cities seeking sustainable transformation under conditions of ecological vulnerability and structural dependence.