Analysis of land use intensity and landscape dynamics in Oye Ekiti, Nigeria, using remote sensing and CA-Markov...

Rapid urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa necessitates sophisticated methods to monitor land-use intensity and structural dynamics. This study aimed to analyse land use intensity and landscape dynamics in Oye Ekiti, Nigeria. Using four epochs of Landsat data (1979-2024) combined with CA-Markov modelling, we monitored historical changes and projected landscape patterns up to 2084. Results indicate significant urban expansion: built-up areas increased from 20.92% in 1979 to 62.09% in 2024, and are projected to cover 88.65% by 2084. Landscape metric analysis reveals that after a brief consolidation phase (1994-2009), the region entered a renewed period of high fragmentation by 2024, marked by a declining Contagion Index and rising Patch Density. Land consumption rates and absorption coefficients further demonstrate that Oye Ekiti is rapidly densifying internally while simultaneously scattering along its rural fringes, resulting in fragmented built-up clusters. These findings highlight that Oye Ekiti is experiencing intense, rapid, and spatially cohesive urban sprawl. The findings underscore the urgent need for structural policy overhauls, including green-belt interventions and infill zoning strategies, to prevent the irreversible degradation of critical ecological systems.