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Updated: Jul 13, 2026

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Published on: June 7, 2020
High-resolution dynamic material flow analysis to elucidate plastic flows in waste management systems.
Yiwen Zhang1, Zhanyun Wang1, Masahiro Oguchi2
1Empa - Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Technology and Society Laboratory, St. Gallen, Switzerland.
This study introduces a dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis (DPMFA) model to track plastic waste in Japan. The model highlights packaging as a key source for mechanical recycling, crucial for a circular plastic economy.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Materials Science
- Chemical Engineering
Background:
- Transitioning to a circular plastic economy necessitates detailed understanding of waste streams.
- Accurate assessment of plastic recycling potential requires granular data on material flows.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis (DPMFA) model for assessing plastic flows.
- To provide high granularity at the end-of-life stage for plastic waste in Japan.
- To support the prioritization of waste flows for enhanced collection and recycling.
Main Methods:
- Dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis (DPMFA) model.
- Parameterization for eight plastic polymers in Japan (1990-2023).
- Inclusion of 47 product categories, 17 waste collection pathways, and 10 sorting systems.
Main Results:
- In 2023, post-consumer waste constituted 70% of mechanical recycling inputs.
- The packaging sector contributed 77% of these inputs.
- Evidence suggests recycled plastics are often downcycled or repurposed into different applications.
Conclusions:
- The DPMFA model effectively evaluates the quantity, separability, and recyclability of plastic waste flows.
- Insights gained can guide strategic decisions for improving plastic waste management and recycling infrastructure.
- The study underscores the importance of detailed waste stream analysis for advancing a circular plastic economy.
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