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Extreme value analysis of wind droughts in Great Britain
Panit Potisomporn1, Thomas A A Adcock1, Christopher R Vogel1
1Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PJ, United Kingdom.
Renewable Energy
|July 13, 2026
Summary
Wind droughts, periods of low wind power generation, pose a challenge to Great Britain's electricity system reliability. These events, analyzed using hydrological methods, may occur more frequently than previously thought.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology
- Climate Science
- Energy Systems
Background:
- Growing wind energy integration in Great Britain necessitates understanding low wind power generation events.
- Ensuring electricity system reliability requires characterizing wind drought severity and duration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze wind drought events in Great Britain using hydrological concepts and extreme value analysis.
- To identify suitable statistical models for representing wind drought characteristics.
Main Methods:
- Extreme value analysis applied to 72 years of ERA5 reanalysis data for wind power generation.
- Utilized hydrological concepts, including pooling procedures and the sequent peak algorithm.
- Assessed suitability of Pearson-III, Lognormal, and Generalised Pareto distributions for modeling wind droughts.
Main Results:
- Pooling procedures enhance the robust identification of wind droughts, especially with energy storage.
- The Pearson-III distribution effectively models extreme wind droughts; Lognormal and Generalised Pareto are alternatives.
- A 14-day wind drought has a 5-year return period; the longest recorded event (26 days) has a 100-year return period.
Conclusions:
- Wind droughts are not exceptionally rare and require consideration for electricity system planning.
- Hydrological perspectives offer valuable insights into the frequency and impact of wind droughts.
- Understanding wind drought recurrence is crucial for maintaining a reliable, decarbonized electricity system.
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