Political ideology, science literacy and future-oriented vaccine optimism in the European Union: a cross-national...

Emerging biomedical advancements necessitate an understanding of public attitudes toward future vaccine technologies. While existing literature largely focuses on current vaccine hesitancy, this study shifts the focus to future-oriented vaccine-related techno-optimism.

Using microdata from Special Eurobarometer 557 (N = 26,500 across 27 EU member states), this study estimates cumulative link mixed models to examine how political ideology and objective science literacy interact to shape public expectations about the societal impact of vaccines over the next 20 years. Importantly, the outcome variable measures prospective techno-optimism and does not measure direct vaccine hesitancy, vaccine refusal, or personal vaccination intention.

The findings reveal an asymmetric political polarization: right-wing and far-right respondents exhibit significantly lower future-oriented vaccine optimism compared to centrists, whereas a symmetric 'horseshoe' pattern involving the far-left is not observed. Furthermore, contrary to the knowledge deficit model, higher objective science literacy paradoxically exacerbates this right-wing gradient rather than mitigating it. While adjustment for distrust in scientists modestly attenuates the political gradient, a substantial ideological gap persists.

The observed interaction between political ideology and scientific knowledge challenges traditional science communication frameworks. The findings suggest that education-only communication tactics may be insufficient to address skepticism toward future biomedical innovations and should be complemented by trust-sensitive and value-aware approaches. However, recognizing the limitations of cross-sectional data, the actual effectiveness of specific communication interventions requires separate, data-driven assessment.