Life-expectancy loss during the COVID-19 pandemic: decomposition using individual-level mortality data

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Demography

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial mortality in the U.S. between March 2020 and April 2023.
• Understanding the impact on life expectancy is crucial for public health assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify life-expectancy loss (LEL) in the U.S. due to COVID-19.
• To analyze variations in LEL by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.
• To compare COVID-19 LEL with historical pandemics and severe influenza seasons.

Main Methods:

• Utilized individual-level death certificate data.
• Employed a cohort-based approach to life expectancy estimation.
• Examined demographic and socioeconomic factors influencing LEL.

Main Results:

• Estimated LEL was 0.043 years (16 days) per person, with higher losses for individuals aged 75+ (averaging 8 weeks).
• LEL was significantly higher for Native Americans, Blacks, and Hispanics compared to Whites.
• LEL increased with decreasing county-level socioeconomic status.
• Cohort-based LEL was a fraction of period-based estimates and lower than the 1918 influenza pandemic but higher than recent severe flu seasons.

Conclusions:

• COVID-19 caused a notable, albeit smaller than 1918 flu, life-expectancy loss in the U.S.
• Disparities in LEL highlight the pandemic's unequal impact across different demographic and socioeconomic groups.
• Cohort-based LEL provides a more accurate long-term perspective than period-based estimates.