GIS-based fuzzy AHP multi-criteria assessment of concentrated solar power (CSP) potential in Timimoun, Algeria

Timimoun Province (southern Algeria) has exceptional direct normal irradiance (DNI), yet CSP deployment is strongly constrained by erg-type desert geomorphology (extensive sand dunes) and limited infrastructure access. This study presents the first 30-m GIS-FAHP CSP suitability assessment for Timimoun using six criteria (DNI, slope, aspect, and proximity to the electricity grid, roads, and settlements). Three network-linking scenarios were evaluated (High-Voltage grid connected, Low-Voltage grid connected, and off-grid). Exclusion masks remove 83.0% (HV), 80.7% (LV), and 61.3% (off-grid) of the about 72.7 km² analysis extent, leaving 12.34-28.10 km² for suitability scoring. Under expert weights, the highest-priority land (Extremely and Very suitable) totals 5.59 km² (HV), 5.54 km² (LV), and 11.24 km² (off-grid). For sites classified as Extremely suitable, the estimated screening-level annual generation potential reaches 160 GWh·yr^-1 (PTC) and 180 GWh·yr^-1 (SPT) for the HV-connected scenario, 135 GWh·yr^-1 (PTC) and 150 GWh·yr^-1 (SPT) for the LV-connected scenario, and up to 250 GWh·yr^-1 (PTC) and 280 GWh·yr^-1 (SPT) for the off-grid scenario. Weight-sensitivity tests using literature-derived and equal-weight schemes confirm that conclusions are largely stable under grid-connected cases, whereas the off-grid classification is more sensitive because suitability becomes predominantly resource-driven once accessibility penalties are removed. Overall, the layout of the transmission network plays a more decisive role in CSP feasibility than the choice of technology. Therefore, targeted extensions of HV lines and selective upgrades to MV infrastructure are essential for harnessing Timimoun's untapped solar potential and accelerating Algeria's shift toward sustainable energy.