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Available data sources to estimate adolescent birthrates in Mexico: a users' guide
Blair G Darney1,2,3, Evelyn Fuentes-Rivera4,5, Raffaela Schiavon6
1Guttmacher Institute, 125 Maiden Lane, New York, NY, 10038, USA. darneyb@ohsu.edu.
Population Health Metrics
|July 14, 2026
Summary
Validating adolescent birth rate data in Mexico is crucial. Hospital registration data offers the most reliable estimates for very young adolescents (10-14 years old), aiding research and policy.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Reproductive Health
Background:
- Accurate adolescent birth rate data is essential for researchers, policymakers, and advocacy groups.
- Estimates for very young adolescents (10-14 years old) are particularly scarce.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare adolescent fertility rates in Mexico using various data sources.
- To assess the consistency of these estimates with official government data.
Main Methods:
- Compared adolescent fertility rates (10-19 years) across census, surveys, civil registration, and birth certificates (2008-2019).
- Calculated live birth rates for very young adolescents (VYA; 10-14 and 12-14) and older adolescents (15-19) nationally and by state.
- Compared estimates with official reconciled data and calculated other age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs).
Main Results:
- National data sources showed declining TFR and ASFRs for adolescents.
- Older adolescent rates (15-19) decreased from 78.3 to 65.1 births per 1,000 (2008-2019).
- VYA rates declined in hospital registration (12-14 years: 3.5 to 2.8) and vital statistics (2.6 to 1.9).
Conclusions:
- Four public data sources largely align with official reconciled data, validating their individual use.
- Hospital registration (birth certificates) appears to be the most reliable source for VYA estimates.
- This finding supports improved data utilization for adolescent reproductive health initiatives.
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