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Updated: Jul 16, 2026
Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
Prognostic host phenotypes based on body composition and systemic inflammation predict survival in patients with
Nicole D Hildebrand1, David P J van Dijk2, Jisce R Puik3
1Department of Surgery, Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, the Netherlands; Department of Surgery, Institute of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism (NUTRIM), Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands; Department of General Visceral, Vascular and Transplantation Surgery, University Medicine Essen, Essen, Germany.
Introduction:
Most present-day survival-models of patients with cancer do not account for tumor-host interactions. We hypothesized that host phenotypes based on systemic inflammation and body composition are prognostic of overall survival (OS) in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).
Methods:
We performed a post-hoc analysis of the nationwide PORSCH-trial, including all patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy for PDAC. Primary outcome was OS. Body composition analysis was performed using automatic segmentation (Mosamatic™) of preoperative abdominal computed tomography scans. Low muscle mass and myosteatosis were defined using log-rank stratification of sex-standardized Z-values of skeletal muscle index and radiation attenuation, respectively. Patients were clustered in eight host phenotypes based on combinations of adverse host factors: [1] low muscle mass, [2] myosteatosis, [3] systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein >6mg/L). Their association with OS was tested using multivariable-adjusted Cox-proportional hazard-analysis. Distinct combinations of adverse host factors were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk phenotypes according to k-means clustering based on log hazard-ratio's.
Results:
549 patients were included. The high-risk phenotype, characterized by the presence of all adverse host factors, showed lower median OS than intermediate ([1], [2], [1 +2], [1 +3], [2 +3]) and low-risk ([3]; none) phenotypes (13.0 months [95%CI 11.4-19.3] vs. 21.9 months [95%CI 19.3-24.7] vs. 35.2 months [95%CI 29.2-45.3], respectively; p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, host phenotypes were associated with OS (adjusted [a]HR 1.39 [95%CI 1.08-1.80, p = 0.01; aHR 2.10 [95%CI 1.53-2.88], p < 0.01, for intermediate- and high-risk respectively), independent of tumor stage.
Discussion:
Host phenotypes based on body composition and systemic inflammation predict OS independent of tumor stage in patients with resected PDAC, underscoring the importance of tumor-host interactions for clinical survival prediction.
