The global fertility freefall: trends, drivers and uncertainties

Fertility rates in higher and middle-income countries have reached record lows. Today, over 2 billion people - more than a quarter of the global population - live in countries with a total fertility rate below 1.3. This level would lead to rapidly shrinking populations in these countries in the absence of significant immigration. This article maps the global landscape of low fertility and the key drivers behind its recent declines. The current fertility 'freefall' is more widespread, deeper and more permanent than previously anticipated. It is driven by multiple factors, including structural conditions, unstable labour markets and anxiety about the future, but also changing intimate relations, better access to efficient contraception and changing views about parenthood and reproductive preferences. These conditions contribute to delayed parenthood, which increases the risk of infertility. Young adults express lower and more fluid fertility intentions than the previous generations, eroding the two-child family norm. The multifaceted nature of fertility decline implies that very low fertility is likely to persist and spread to many more countries. Due to lower fertility preferences and a limited scope to address the root causes of low fertility, policies aiming to increase fertility will probably fail in their aim to reverse fertility decline.