Nomogram model for predicting spontaneous preterm birth in twin pregnancies: a case-control study.

Area of Science:

• Maternal-Fetal Medicine
• Obstetrics
• Reproductive Health

Background:

• Spontaneous preterm birth (SPB) in twin pregnancies poses significant risks.
• Identifying predictive factors for SPB in twins is crucial for improved outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent predictors of spontaneous preterm birth in twin pregnancies.
• To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting SPB in twin gestations.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 218 twin pregnancies.
• Univariate and multivariate logistic regression for factor identification.
• Nomogram construction and validation using ROC curve (AUC) and C-index.

Main Results:

• Independent predictors identified: BMI at delivery, second-trimester cervical length, and gestational vaginitis.
• The nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.838 and AUC of 0.838.
• Decision curve analysis confirmed clinical utility across various probability thresholds.

Conclusions:

• A practical nomogram incorporating BMI, cervical length, and gestational vaginitis aids in predicting SPB in twin pregnancies.
• This tool supports individualized risk assessment and clinical management strategies.
• Further research may refine predictive models for twin pregnancy complications.