Integrating the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio into a Clinicopathological Nomogram for Event-Free Survival Prediction...

Neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy (NAC) followed by radical cystectomy (RC) is a standard treatment for cisplatin-eligible patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), yet baseline tools to refine prognostic stratification remain limited. We aimed to develop and internally validate a clinicopathological nomogram integrating the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to estimate event-free survival (EFS) in patients with MIBC treated with NAC.

We retrospectively analyzed 210 patients with cT2-T4aN0-1M0 MIBC treated with cisplatin-based NAC at two Spanish institutions between 2010 and 2021. Candidate predictors included demographic, clinicopathological, and routine laboratory variables. A multivariable Cox model with backward selection based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to derive the final model, and internal validation was performed using 1000 bootstrap resamples.

Sex, age, prior non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), and NLR were retained in the final nomogram. The model showed moderate discrimination, with a Harrell's c-index of 0.60 and an optimism-corrected c-index of 0.58. The nomogram stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, with median EFS not reached, 47.5 months, and 18.0 months, respectively. High-risk patients also showed lower pathological complete response (pCR) rates.

This exploratory nomogram integrates an accessible systemic inflammatory marker with baseline clinical variables to identify patients with poorer outcomes despite NAC. External validation in contemporary cohorts is warranted before clinical implementation.