Interpretable SVM-Based Integrated Ultrasound Model for Preoperative Thyroid Nodule Subtype Classification: Improved...

Background/Objectives: Preoperative differentiation among benign thyroid nodules, follicular variant papillary thyroid carcinoma (FV-PTC), and classical papillary thyroid carcinoma (C-PTC) remains clinically challenging. FV-PTC is particularly difficult to identify due to its substantial sonographic and cytological overlap with both benign nodules and other malignant subtypes, frequently resulting in overtreatment or delayed diagnosis. This study aimed to develop and validate an interpretable multimodal model for accurate three-class discrimination using routine ultrasound images, with a specific focus on improving the preoperative identification of FV-PTC. Methods: This retrospective study included 479 pathologically confirmed thyroid nodules from 462 patients. Conventional ultrasound features and radiomics features extracted from grayscale ultrasound and color Doppler flow imaging were used to construct three predictive models: a Conventional Ultrasound model (conventional ultrasound features only), a Radiomics model (radiomics features only), and an Integrated model (combined features). Each model was trained using four machine learning classifiers. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F1 score. Model interpretability was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, and clinical usefulness was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The support vector machine (SVM)-based Integrated Model achieved the best overall performance. In the independent testing cohort, the AUCs were 0.853 for FV-PTC, 0.882 for C-PTC and 0.928 for benign nodules. The Integrated Model showed the greatest improvement for FV-PTC, with a ΔAUC of 0.141 compared with the Conventional Ultrasound Model. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis identified wavelet-HL_gldm_Dependence and wavelet-HH_glcm_InverseVariance as the two most important radiomics predictors in both the Radiomics Model and the Integrated Model, demonstrating robust cross-model stability and high discriminative power. Conclusions: The SVM-based Integrated Model demonstrated promising performance for three-class classification of thyroid nodules and enhanced the preoperative identification of FV-PTC. This approach may provide an interpretable and noninvasive decision-support tool for refining subtype-specific risk stratification and supporting individualized clinical management.