Predicting climate-driven urban rat release and associated risks across climate zones

Area of Science:

• Urban ecology
• Climate change adaptation
• Public health

Background:

• Urban rat populations are often assumed to increase globally under climate change.
• This assumption oversimplifies complex ecological and social factors influencing rat dynamics.
• A nuanced understanding is needed to address urban rodent challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a multi-dimensional framework for understanding urban rat population dynamics under climate change.
• To move beyond simplistic assumptions of uniform population increases.
• To provide guidance for urban planning and public health in warming climates.

Main Methods:

• Synthesized evidence from rodent ecology, epidemiology, urbanization, and human behavior.
• Developed a framework considering climate, ecological constraints, and socio-political factors.
• Analyzed potential impacts across cold-temperate, mild-temperate, and tropical cities.

Main Results:

• Climate change effects vary by city type; cold-temperate cities may see short-term increases due to relaxed winter constraints.
• Warming winters can extend rat breeding seasons and food availability, interacting with urban factors.
• Human social responses (sanitation, control efforts) significantly influence rat population outcomes, sometimes more than ecological factors.

Conclusions:

• Climate change will not cause uniform increases in urban rat abundance.
• Rat population dynamics are shaped by interacting climate, ecological, and social dimensions.
• A multi-dimensional approach is crucial for managing urban rat populations and associated risks in a changing climate, aligning with One Health principles.