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Rethinking future flood hazard: Hourly data challenge daily flood projections in Alpine catchments.

Paul C Astagneau1,2,3, Raul R Wood1,2,3, Manuela I Brunner1,2,3

  • 1WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland.

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|July 15, 2026
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Climate warming may increase flood risk, contrary to previous research. Hourly data reveals intensified rainfall can outweigh declining snowmelt, especially in Alpine regions, necessitating a shift in flood hazard assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Current flood hazard research often assumes decreasing flood risk in warming climates due to reduced snowmelt.
  • This assumption is based on daily resolution data, which can mask the impact of intensified subdaily rainfall.
  • Alpine catchments are particularly sensitive to changes in snowmelt and precipitation patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To challenge the misconception that floods will decrease under climate warming.
  • To investigate the impact of subdaily rainfall intensification on flood changes in Alpine catchments.
  • To highlight the importance of hourly resolution data for accurate flood hazard assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Comparison of daily and hourly streamflow projections in Alpine catchments.
  • Analysis of flood changes under different climate warming scenarios.
  • Evaluation of the influence of land-surface processes, including snowmelt and rainfall intensity.

Main Results:

  • Daily streamflow projections systematically underestimate flood changes compared to hourly projections.
  • In snow-influenced catchments, hourly projections can reveal a switch from decreasing to increasing flood risk.
  • Intensified subdaily precipitation is shown to be a critical factor outweighing reduced snowmelt.

Conclusions:

  • Using daily resolution data can lead to incorrect conclusions about the magnitude and direction of flood changes.
  • An hourly resolution perspective is crucial for reliable flood hazard assessment in a warming world.
  • Accurate flood projections are essential for developing effective adaptation strategies to extreme Alpine floods.