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Economic evaluation of alternative PCV13 vaccination strategies in Guangxi, China: a decision tree-Markov model study
Quan He1, Bangjun Pang2, Zhengqin Su1
1School of Public Health and Management, Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning, Guangxi, China; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Integrative Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine and Translational Medicine for High-Incidence Infectious Diseases, Nanning, Guangxi, China.
Insights
Including the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in China's National Immunization Program (NIP) is cost-effective. This strategy is projected to significantly reduce pneumococcal disease cases and deaths, offering substantial economic benefits and improving public health outcomes for children.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Health Economics
- Vaccinology
Background:
- Pneumococcal disease poses a significant threat to children under five, especially where vaccine coverage is low.
- China's National Immunization Program (NIP) does not include the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), leading to limited uptake.
- This study assesses the health and economic impact of integrating PCV13 into the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's immunization schedule.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of including PCV13 in the Guangxi immunization program.
- To compare the societal perspective of NIP inclusion versus the current self-paid vaccination strategy.
- To quantify the potential reduction in pneumococcal disease burden and associated health gains.
Main Methods:
- A decision tree-Markov model simulated a cohort of 420,000 children over five years.
- The analysis compared NIP inclusion against the self-paid strategy from a societal perspective.
- Key outcomes included costs, disease cases, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs), with a 3% discount rate.
Main Results:
- NIP inclusion dramatically increased PCV13 coverage, preventing an estimated 77,042 cases and 327 deaths in five years.
- Despite increased vaccination costs, the program yielded a net economic benefit of USD 3.92 million (BCR: 1.03).
- An additional 25,702.2 QALYs were generated, with an ICER of USD 6042.75 per QALY, falling below the per capita GDP threshold.
Conclusions:
- Integrating PCV13 into Guangxi's immunization program is a highly cost-effective strategy.
- The inclusion is projected to generate positive economic returns and significant health benefits.
- The findings provide robust evidence supporting policy decisions for PCV13 adoption in the NIP.
Background:
Pneumococcal disease remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age, particularly in settings with low vaccine coverage. In China, the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is not included in the National Immunization Program (NIP), resulting in suboptimal uptake. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of including PCV13 in the immunization program in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
Methods:
A decision tree-Markov model was used to simulate a birth cohort of 420,000 children over a 5-year horizon from a societal perspective. The current self-paid vaccination strategy was compared with NIP inclusion. Outcomes included costs, cases, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.
Results:
NIP inclusion increased vaccination coverage from 5900 to 417,019 children and was projected to prevent 77,042 cases and 327 deaths over 5 years. Despite higher vaccination costs, reduced disease burden resulted in a net economic benefit of USD 3.92 million (BCR: 1.03). The program generated an additional 25,702.2 QALYs, with an ICER of USD 6042.75 per QALY gained, below the per capita GDP threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that most simulations were below the willingness-to-pay threshold, with the probability of cost-effectiveness approaching 100%.
Conclusions:
Including PCV13 in Guangxi's immunization program is highly cost-effective and likely to yield positive economic returns. These findings are robust and support policy decisions on PCV13 inclusion.
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