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Related Concept Videos

Unrealistic Optimism Bias01:30

Unrealistic Optimism Bias

Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is called the fundamental attribution...
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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
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Personality traits represent consistent patterns in behavior, thoughts, and emotions, reflecting an individual's tendencies across various situations. For example, extraversion, a well-known trait, manifests in individuals as talkative, energetic, and enthusiastic behaviors. These traits are stable over time, offering a reliable framework for predicting how people might act in different contexts. However, they do not define every moment of an individual's life. In contrast to traits, states are...
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Cognitive bias results from limitations in thinking and information processing, leading to systematic errors in judgment. Conversely, motivational bias stems from personal desires or emotions, causing distortions in perception to align with self-interest. Motivational bias influences how individuals perceive and attribute causes to events, often shaped by personal needs, goals, and self-esteem preservation. This bias can distort judgment, leading to inaccurate assessments of success, failure,...

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 17, 2026

The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
08:24

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Published on: August 25, 2023

State Optimism as a State-Dependent Prior About Rewarding Outcomes.

Kanji Shimomura1,2, Kenji Morita1,3

  • 1Graduate School of Education, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

Computational Brain & Behavior
|July 16, 2026
PubMed
Summary

State optimism, or fluctuating optimism, influences decision-making. Changes in optimism correlate with prior reward expectations, suggesting a role in optimizing learning and exploration.

Keywords:
Belief updating biasBest possible self interventionPrior expectation about rewardState optimism

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Neuroscience
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Optimism exhibits state-like fluctuations within individuals.
  • Understanding these changes is crucial for formal learning theories.
  • Optimism influences future expectations and decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the dynamic relationship between state optimism and learning.
  • To test if intraindividual changes in optimism relate to belief updating bias and reward expectation priors.
  • To explore the functional role of state optimism in value-based learning.

Main Methods:

  • An intervention was used to increase optimism in participants.
  • Behavioral tasks and questionnaire surveys were administered pre- and post-intervention.
  • Reward learning tasks estimated prior reward expectations.

Main Results:

  • The optimism intervention successfully increased state optimism.
  • Intraindividual changes in state optimism were partially associated with prior reward expectations.
  • No significant relationship was found between optimism changes and positive belief updating bias.

Conclusions:

  • State optimism influences value-based learning and decision-making.
  • Optimism may act as a state-dependent prior for rewarding outcomes.
  • This finding suggests optimism can optimize exploration in learning.