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State Optimism as a State-Dependent Prior About Rewarding Outcomes.
Kanji Shimomura1,2, Kenji Morita1,3
1Graduate School of Education, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Computational Brain & Behavior
|July 16, 2026
Summary
State optimism, or fluctuating optimism, influences decision-making. Changes in optimism correlate with prior reward expectations, suggesting a role in optimizing learning and exploration.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Neuroscience
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- Optimism exhibits state-like fluctuations within individuals.
- Understanding these changes is crucial for formal learning theories.
- Optimism influences future expectations and decision-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the dynamic relationship between state optimism and learning.
- To test if intraindividual changes in optimism relate to belief updating bias and reward expectation priors.
- To explore the functional role of state optimism in value-based learning.
Main Methods:
- An intervention was used to increase optimism in participants.
- Behavioral tasks and questionnaire surveys were administered pre- and post-intervention.
- Reward learning tasks estimated prior reward expectations.
Main Results:
- The optimism intervention successfully increased state optimism.
- Intraindividual changes in state optimism were partially associated with prior reward expectations.
- No significant relationship was found between optimism changes and positive belief updating bias.
Conclusions:
- State optimism influences value-based learning and decision-making.
- Optimism may act as a state-dependent prior for rewarding outcomes.
- This finding suggests optimism can optimize exploration in learning.
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