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Updated: Jul 17, 2026

Design and Construction of an Urban Runoff Research Facility
Published on: August 8, 2014
Runoff simulation and prediction in a water source area of a typical urban agglomeration
Zhaohui Feng1, Zichao Zhang2, Lingqing Wang3
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
None:
The dynamics of water resources in the strategic water source areas of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under combined scenarios of future climate change, land-use evolution, and social vulnerability remain unclear. The current runoff status of the water source area in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was simulated and predicted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The runoff simulation showed that R2 values were 0.76 for the calibration period (2009-2016) and 0.97 for the validation period (2017-2018). Multiple simulation scenarios showed warming climate trends in the future. In the future prediction, the runoff in the SSP585 scenario decreased by 36.31% (2041-2050) and 5.96% (2051-2060), respectively. The results indicated that high radiative forcing and high social vulnerability were not conducive to future water resource replenishment and sustainable development, highlighting potential challenges for maintaining water resources under combined climate and social pressures.
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