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Perceived Cognitive Effort and Judgment under Uncertainty: A Cognitive Perspective on Opportunity Evaluation
Nelson A Andrade-Valbuena1, Manuel Alonso-Dos Santos1,2
1Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción.
The Journal of Psychology
|July 16, 2026
Summary
Perceived cognitive effort hinders opportunity judgments, but risk-taking and social influence can lessen this effect. Understanding these cognitive constraints is key for evaluating novel opportunities.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive psychology
- Entrepreneurship
- Decision-making under uncertainty
Background:
- Evaluating novel opportunities is cognitively demanding.
- Limited research exists on the link between perceived mental effort and opportunity judgments.
- Cognitive Load Theory provides a framework for understanding mental effort.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between perceived cognitive effort and evaluative judgments of technological opportunities.
- To examine how innovativeness of technological stimuli influences this association.
- To explore moderating factors of risk-taking propensity and informational social influence.
Main Methods:
- Vignette-based experimental survey design.
- Manipulation of technological stimulus innovativeness (high vs. low).
- Data collected from 404 technology-oriented entrepreneurs using self-report scales.
Main Results:
- Perceived cognitive effort negatively associated with opportunity beliefs and expected returns.
- Risk-taking propensity attenuated the negative effect on expected returns.
- Informational social influence mitigated the negative effect on opportunity beliefs.
Conclusions:
- Perceived cognitive effort acts as a conditional cognitive constraint in opportunity evaluation.
- It is not a uniformly inhibiting factor, with moderators influencing its impact.
- Findings offer insights into decision-making processes for novel technological ventures.
Keywords:
Perceived cognitive effortcognitive loaddecision-makingjudgment under uncertaintyrisk-taking propensitytechnological noveltyMore Related Videos
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