Climate change mitigation potential of reducing forest harvest under increased risk of wildfires in Canada

This study quantified the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential of a hypothetical harvest reduction scenario using a system approach that included ecosystem carbon dynamics with future wildfires, tracking of carbon in wood products and substitution impacts of emissions-intensive materials. A Harvest Less scenario reduced harvest volume by ∼15% and preferentially harvested stands with higher wildfire-risk while retaining lower wildfire-risk stands on the landscape. Stand selection was guided by a harvest scheduler that prioritized higher wildfire risk stands during optimization. Open-source models and publicly available datasets were used to estimate net GHG benefits relative to a forward-looking baseline. A statistical approach was used to project future area burned across distinct fire zones, enabling quantitative assessment of wildfire risk under a changing climate. The net GHG reduction associated with reduced harvest volumes varied by region and wildfire regime. Nationally, the cumulative net GHG reduction was -836 MtCO₂e (80% confidence interval -820 to -854) after 40 years, with annual mitigation peaking after roughly 10 years and declining thereafter. Regions with high burn rates exhibited greater uncertainty in the climate change mitigation potential of reduced harvesting. These findings emphasize the need for a balanced forest management approach that accounts for both carbon sequestration and wildfire risk to effectively mitigate climate change.