Obesity, insufficient physical activity and life expectancy across 172 countries: a longitudinal ecological panel...

Obesity and insufficient physical activity are major global health risks, but their population-level associations with life expectancy may overlap because both evolve with economic and epidemiological transition.

To compare the strength and robustness of the associations of adult obesity prevalence and insufficient physical activity with life expectancy at birth in a longitudinal ecological panel of countries.

Annual country-level data for 2000-2020 were analysed. The full source panel contained 4,095 country-year observations from 195 countries, and the primary complete-case sample included 3,365 observations from 172 countries. Life expectancy at birth was the outcome. Adult obesity prevalence and insufficient physical activity were the main exposures. Models included two-way fixed-effects specifications with country-clustered standard errors, oneyear lagged exposures, a joint lagged specification, country-specific time trends, a non-linear obesity model, a smoking sensitivity analysis, and three-year and five-year lag sensitivity models.

In standalone lagged models, obesity (β = -0.3017, p < 0.001) and insufficient physical activity (β = -0.0716, p = 0.020) were inversely associated with life expectancy. In the joint lagged model, obesity remained significant (β = -0.2873, p < 0.001), whereas insufficient physical activity attenuated to non-significance (β = -0.0153, p = 0.643). In the country-specific time-trends model, obesity remained significant (β = -0.2496, p = 0.040), but insufficient physical activity did not (β = 0.1325, p = 0.457). Three-year and five-year lag models supported this pattern.

In this country-level panel, adult obesity prevalence showed a more robust inverse association with life expectancy than insufficient physical activity. The findings should not be interpreted as evidence that obesity alone causes lower life expectancy. Rather, obesity may represent a cumulative marker of overlapping metabolic, social, environmental, and policy-related processes that shape population longevity.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.32394/rpzh/225361.