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Published on: July 17, 2020
Pacing strategy patterns and performance outcomes in marathon running: A large-scale analysis of split time data
1School of Physical Education, Zhengzhou University of Science and Technology, Zhengzhou, China.
Plos One
|July 17, 2026
Summary
Even-pacing is the fastest marathon strategy for most runners, regardless of age or performance level. Understanding individual pacing patterns can help optimize race day performance.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Exercise Physiology
- Running Performance Analysis
Background:
- Marathon pacing strategy is crucial for performance.
- Pacing patterns in recreational runners are not well-characterized.
- Large-scale analysis of marathon pacing is needed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify distinct pacing patterns in marathon runners.
- To examine the association between pacing strategy and finish time.
- To investigate how age, sex, and performance level influence pacing.
Main Methods:
- Analyzed split time data from 78,912 Boston Marathon finishers (2015-2017).
- Characterized pacing profiles using first-half to second-half ratios and segment paces.
- Employed cluster analysis to identify patterns and regression analysis for associations.
Main Results:
- Identified four pacing patterns: even-pacing (47.9%), mild positive-splitting (31.9%), strong positive-splitting (12.2%), and variable-pacing (8.0%).
- Even-pacing was consistently linked to the fastest finish times across demographics.
- Variable-pacing correlated with the highest incidence of "hitting the wall".
Conclusions:
- Even-pacing is associated with optimal marathon performance.
- Pacing strategy selection is influenced by age, sex, and performance level.
- Individualized marathon pacing guidance should consider demographic and performance factors.
