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Published on: September 12, 2017
Agricultural land degradation consequences as a migration driver in Egypt
Muhammad Hussien1, Abdelrahman Ali2,3, Yanwen Tan2
1Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, Fayoum University, Fayoum, Egypt.
Environmental migration, driven by soil salinity and agricultural land degradation (ALD), significantly impacts productivity and income in Egypt. Policies must address land management and human capital to reduce displacement pressures.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sociology
- Agricultural Economics
Background:
- Environmental migration is a growing global concern.
- Increasing soil salinity degrades agricultural land, reducing productivity and income.
- This degradation fuels migration intention (MI) in affected regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of agricultural land degradation (ALD), specifically soil salinity, on productivity and migration intention (MI) in Egypt.
- To analyze the role of socioeconomic factors and environmental change in shaping MI.
- To apply Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to understand migration drivers.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of primary data from 1,782 respondents in Egypt.
- Utilized a multinomial logistic model to assess factors influencing MI.
- Employed Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) as the analytical framework.
Main Results:
- Socioeconomic characteristics, agricultural engagement, and ALD significantly determine MI.
- Over 35.8% reported declining land productivity; 22.4% are seeking relocation.
- Cairo and international destinations are preferred migration sites; older populations and women show higher MI.
Conclusions:
- Declining land productivity due to environmental change is a primary driver of migration intention.
- Policy interventions should focus on sustainable land/water management and human capital development.
- Addressing ecological pressures is crucial for rural resilience and mitigating displacement.
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