Measuring Influence in the Digital Age: Predictive Value of Altmetrics in Plastic Surgery Literature Compared to...

Plastic and reconstructive surgery is among the most socially engaged surgical fields, with widespread use of digital platforms to share research. As a result, assessing scholarly impact now extends beyond traditional metrics such as journal impact factor (IF). The Altmetric Attention Score (AAS) provides real-time insight into online engagement, but its ability to predict academic impact in plastic surgery literature remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether AAS can serve as a reliable predictor of citation impact within the field.

A total of 5,418 original research articles published between January 2022 and December 2023 in ten leading plastic surgery journals were analyzed. A mixed linear model was used to evaluate how well AAS, 5-year journal IF, and time since publication (a key factor in citation accrual) predicted Dimensions citation counts. Journal identity was incorporated as a random effect. Predictor strength was assessed using permutation-based relative importance testing.

Time since publication was the strongest predictor of citation count, accounting for 82% of the model's explanatory power (p < 0.001). AAS was the second most influential predictor, contributing 16% (p < 0.001). In contrast, the 5-year journal impact factor accounted for only 1.6% and was not a statistically significant predictor (p = 0.119).

AAS is a valuable early predictor of academic impact in plastic surgery literature and outperforms journal IF. Altmetrics provide timely insight into research visibility and should be used alongside established metrics to more effectively evaluate scholarly reach in the digital era.