Factors associated with additional intervention requirement following ESWL in pediatric patients with urolithiasis

To identify predictors of additional intervention following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in pediatric patients and to develop a clinically applicable predictive model.

This retrospective cohort study included 647 pediatric patients who underwent ESWL between 2015 and 2025. Demographic, clinical, and radiological variables were analyzed. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of additional intervention. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

Additional intervention was required in 65 patients (10.0%). On multivariable analysis, stone size 10-20 mm (OR: 3.04, p = 0.003), moderate (OR: 2.16, p = 0.049) and severe hydronephrosis (OR: 6.05, p < 0.001), and multiple stones (OR: 3.52, p = 0.030) were identified as independent risk factors. Increasing age (OR: 0.84, p = 0.026), history of urolithiasis (OR: 0.41, p = 0.006), and lower calyx location (OR: 0.14, p = 0.034) were associated with a reduced risk. The model demonstrated good discriminative performance (AUC: 0.794), with a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 75%. Internal validation using bootstrap resampling demonstrated stable model performance, yielding a corrected AUC of 0.732.

Stone burden, hydronephrosis severity, and stone multiplicity are key determinants of additional intervention after ESWL in pediatric patients. The proposed model shows good predictive performance and may support individualized risk stratification and clinical decision-making.