Ten- and thirty-year cardiovascular disease risks using PREVENT equation in Koreans from 2001 to 2021

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a major global health burden, with risk factors evolving alongside socioeconomic and lifestyle changes. The PREVENT equation provides race-free estimates of 10- and 30-year CVD risk, but its utility in Asian populations remains underexplored. This study assessed long-term trends in CVD risk among Korean adults and identified key contributing factors.

This cross-sectional analysis used nationally representative data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES), spanning 2001-2021. Adults aged ≥30 years with relevant clinical and laboratory data were included. The PREVENT equation was used to calculate 10- and 30-year CVD risk. Trends in risk estimates were examined by year and sex.

The estimated 10-year risk of total CVD increased from 4.6% ± 7.1% (mean ± SD) in 2001 to 7.9% ± 9.0% in 2021, and the estimated 30-year risk for total CVD climbed from 15.8% ± 14.6% to 22.9% ± 14.5% over the same period. Key contributors to this upward trend included worsening glycemic control (mean glucose: 97 ± 17 mg/dl in 2001 vs 103 ± 22 mg/dl in 2021) and increased antihypertensive medication use. In contrast, rising high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and declining male smoking rates (47.9% in 2001 to 28.9% in 2021) may have mitigated some risk.

Over two decades, estimated CVD risk has increased in the Korean population, highlighting the need for targeted prevention efforts. As countries undergo rapid economic and demographic transitions, long-term CVD risk estimation using the PREVENT equation may inform public health strategies to mitigate cardiovascular burden.