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Behavioral feedbacks to climate mitigation under intensifying disasters
Mengyu Li1, Manfred Lenzen1, Bin Chen2
1ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
Iscience
|July 19, 2026
Summary
Record emissions in 2024 surpassed the 1.5°C warming limit, highlighting a gap between climate goals and reality. Extreme weather impacts human behavior, influencing policy support in ways not yet modeled, risking mitigation efforts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Behavioral Science
- Environmental Policy
Background:
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides pathways to limit global warming.
- Record emissions in 2024 exceeded the 1.5°C warming threshold, indicating a significant gap between climate targets and actual progress.
- Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used in IPCC reports do not fully capture human behavioral responses to climate change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the evolution of behavioral feedbacks (cognition, communication, conflict) under escalating climate disruptions.
- To assess the potential for these feedbacks to undermine global climate mitigation efforts.
- To propose a research agenda for integrating behavioral dynamics into IAM-based scenarios for improved policy relevance.
Main Methods:
- Qualitative analysis of behavioral feedbacks.
- Review of existing IAM limitations.
- Proposal for future research integration.
Main Results:
- Escalating climate disruptions can trigger complex human behavioral responses.
- These behavioral feedbacks, including shifts in public beliefs and policy support, are not adequately represented in current climate models.
- Neglecting psychological and societal dynamics poses a risk to effective climate mitigation.
Conclusions:
- There is a critical need to integrate behavioral feedbacks into climate change assessments.
- Future IPCC assessments require enhanced realism by incorporating psychological and societal factors.
- A targeted research agenda is proposed to bridge the gap between climate science and behavioral science for policy impact.
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